Grays/Torreys Peaks

Diane and I hiked our very first 14er last weekend, and as a bonus we bagged a second peak. Grays Peak, and the nearby Torreys Peak, are the two most popular 14,000-foot peaks in Colorado, especially for first-timers like us. This is because they are very easy peaks to summit - Grays can be done with a Class 1 hike - and also because they are easy to get to from Denver. Just take I-70 west past Georgetown, jump off at the Bakersfield exit, and drive the terrifying Stevens Gulch Road up to the trailhead, and you're all set.

The Bakersfield exit is visible from Torreys Peak

The adventure started on Saturday right after a quick lunch in Denver. We headed out on I-70 and only a few miles down the road we ran into stop and go traffic. An illuminated sign said, "Slow Traffic from Floyd Hill to Idaho Springs", but we were about 5 miles from Floyd Hill. We sucked fumes along with all the other weekend warriors for an hour or so, and cranked it back up to the speed limit shortly after traversing the Idaho Springs tunnel. I've heard about I-70's epic weekend rush hour, but I hadn't experienced it until now.

The guide books all say that you should use a high-clearance vehicle on Stevens Gulch Road, and they are not kidding. We took the trail-rated Jeep Liberty, threw it in 4wd, and crawled up the rocky hole-covered 1-lane road. It was made even more exciting because we started our trek about 1pm on Saturday, just as the early Saturday morning hikers were breaking camp and heading back down. Several times we had to balance on the edge of a drop-off or back up a ways to find a wide spot to let a line of cars come down the opposite way. This also limited our ability to avoid some of the potholes and wash-outs. I heard a couple of scrapes on the undercarriage of the Jeep on the way up.

As we got close to the trailhead parking lot, we were shocked by the huge number of cars parked along the side of (ie in the middle of) the road. There must have been a thousand hikers on the site, based on the number of cars. We timed it well, though, getting there after Saturday morning folks had started to leave but before most of the Saturday evening folks had arrived. We were able to get a spot in the actual parking lot right next to a very nice campsite. We set up the tent in a light rain, and crammed all our sleeping gear into it just as the thunder started to rumble. We spent a lazy cozy hour or two reading and snoozing while the rain pattered on the tent.

A glimpse of Grays Peak from the trailhead Saturday afternoon as the weather rolled in

Picturesque Columbines at the trailhead

We had brought enough food to eat dinner in camp on Saturday night, as well as breakfast and lunch on Sunday. But about 4pm we decided to head into Silverthorne to pick up some dinner. I wasn't thrilled about trying to drive Stevens Gulch Road in the dark, so we hit up a Jimmy Johns and brought it back to camp. It wasn't all that different than the sandwich parts we had in the cooler, but I also got a Frappuchino out of it, so I wasn't complaining. Diane liked Silverthorne, too; this was her first visit to a real Colorado ski town.

Every campsite needs a bint

The alarm was set for 4:00 the next morning, so we hit the sack early. Our lullabies consisted of a barking dog and some idiot trying to split a firewood log with a camp shovel. He succeeded, broke the shovel, or gave up eventually; I didn't investigate which. The next morning we awoke in the pitch black, affixed headlamps, and started the process of fueling and gearing up for the hike ahead of us. I was hoping to be on the trail by 4:30, but I knew it was probably optimistic. Sure enough, we set out about 5:00. The beginning of the trail is very easy, which helps when you're navigating by headlamp. It wasn't long before we could see the mountains against a lightening sky, and about three quarters of a mile up the trail we rounded a bend and were finally able to see both peaks illuminated in the sunlight.

Grays (left) and Torreys (right) at sunrise

The trailhead is just about at the tree line, at 11,300 feet. Not far from the start, the pines fade out and the largest vegetation are shoulder-high bushes - I think mountain mohagony, but I'm not sure. These then dwindle in size and frequency until they disappear completely, yielding to alpine tundra. When the bushes were about waist high, still in the pitch black, we both decided that the longjohns that seemed like such a great idea back at camp were now a little on the warm side. Taking advantage of the bush cover as well as the dark, we took turns doing a costume change while the other stood guard at the trail. During my post, I must have talked to about 8 people. Pretty busy for 5:30 in the morning.

At about 12,000 feet, well into the tundra, we started hearing little squeaks from pikas. Every once in a while one would poke his head out and look at us, but the best picture I was able to capture was his little fat bottom disappearing into the rocks. So I had to settle for scenery, which doesn't flee from cameras.

American Pika (Wikipedia)

Morning light hits one of the mountains that frames the trail valley

Farther up the trail, the tundra starts to get patchier, and the broken rock piles become more frequent and continuous until eventually it's nothing but jumbled rocks above 13,500. We were really feeling the altitude at this point, and our pace slowed from a comfortable stroll to a plodding death march. The sun and the wind increased at about the same pace, which made further outfit adjustments unnecessary. Unusual for us, we were not passing anyone on the trail, and instead were the ones being passed. This was an indication that we were hiking right at our level of fitness.

Same mountain, 500 feet higher. The whole trail valley is visible to its right.

We started seeing the occasional hiker coming down at this point, although no one that had passed us on the way up, which was encouraging. I chatted with one for a couple of minutes as I stopped to rest and he stopped to put on sunscreen; he said he had set out at 2:00 that morning, and had watched the sunrise from the peak. Very impressive. We also had a runner go by on his way up the trail. He was visible running back down the trail later while we basked in the glory of the summit; talking with other hikers, it turned out he had run all the way from I-70 - a 12-mile round-trip run with an approximate 5000 foot elevation change, peaking at 14,278. Wow.

Cool rock formation next to the trail at the base of the Grays switchbacks

We summited Grays Peak at about 8:30, along with about 20 or 30 of our closest friends. We all hunkered down among the rock piles to escape the wind and had our lunches, chatting about how awesome this all was. We met lots of nice people, and traded picture-taking services freely. Everyone wants to commemorate their achievement, of course. There was an obsessive-compulsive lad there building up the rock cairns at the top into a continuous wall. Not quite sure what his problem was, but it was a little disconcerting having 50-lb rocks dropped on top of the pile I was leaning against.

The view, predictably, was amazing. The wind, predictably, was bitter-cold. The sky was the deepest blue I've ever seen. Words don't really do justice to the summit experience, and pictures can only approximate the panoramic magnificence that we all took in, open-mouthed. You really have to go there yourself, and yes, it's worth the effort.

One of the many amazing views from Grays Peak.

Looking down on Chihuahua Gulch from Grays Peak.
The lake which is the source of the stream is at 12,200 feet.

Diane provides proof-of-life for the kidnapping investigation.

After celebrating, resting, and eating on Grays, it was time to bag Torreys. This is done by taking a trail down the north face of Grays to the saddle that runs between it and Torreys, and then back up the other side. The bottom of the saddle clocks in at 13,750, and Torreys is only about 7 feet lower than Grays, so down we went 500 feet and then back up the same amount. The trail up Torreys is somewhat tougher than the Grays trail, but still easy enough. It is classified as a Class 2, but frankly the elevation was a much bigger factor than the trail difficulty. At Class 2, you're still hiking and not needing your hands, but it's steeper and you're taking larger steps up to get over rocks. Distance from Grays Peak to Torreys Peak: about 1 mile. Not doing it would be crazy.

Torreys Peak from Grays.
Note the trail running along the ridge of the saddle.

Grays Peak from the Torreys Peak trail.
Clearly visible are the switchbacks near the summit.
We think they should install a Grays-to-Torreys zipline.

Despite it being later in the day, the crowd at the Torreys summit was no larger than it was at Grays. Grays was getting busier, though. If you look closely at the picture above (click to enlarge), you can see the summit covered in tiny people. Back at Torreys, a couple of college students that we had summited both peaks with were taking pictures of each other jumping on the top of Torreys. It looked like they were having fun, but we were satisfied with just taking pictures with the sign proving we were there.

Proof of life, location, and date. Send the ransom, already!

After a little more time hanging out on Torreys, it was time to head down. The trail was a lot busier than it was on the way up. We noticed that the farther down the trail we got, the more casual the hikers seemed to be. By the time we dragged ourselves back to the trailhead, we were seeing T-Shirts and sandals on folks with no packs and limited water. I really hope they weren't determined to summit, especially considering the afternoon weather was about to get started again.

Hikers everywhere

We took the tent down in a light drizzle, and broke camp about 1:00 pm. Back down the treacherous Stevens Gulch Road, and onto the stop-and-go I-70 again, spending over an hour getting 10 miles back to Idaho Springs. To break up the suffering, we stopped in Georgetown and had calzones at the Alpine Grill - tasty! When we finally made it home, we were ready to sleep for days.

Satellite View of our trail

For more details and stats about the hike, see my Trimble Outdoors profile.

So, which one is next?

Bullet-Dodging

Intel (INTC), IBM, and Xilinx (XLNX) all reported earnings last night. Being the pessimistic contrarian that I am, I intended to buy puts on all three of these companies. In fact I was working orders to buy puts on Monday, but didn't get filled. I like to buy the puts a couple of days early, because experience with Research in Motion (previously RIMM, now BBRY) has shown that option cost goes through the roof shortly before an earnings announcement. Apparently the market makers are aware that earnings announcements move stocks, and so are building more expected volatility into the vega. So I exchange a couple of days of market risk for lower implied volatility cost, as long as I feel I'm getting a good price for the options.

Anyway, I didn't get filled on Monday, and intended to place my orders again on Tuesday -- I don't believe in GTC for options entry orders, that's the way to get a really nasty surprise after forgetting about the orders. But life intervened, and it completely slipped my mind until last night long after the market close. I went ahead and checked the price action on those three stocks this morning, and this is what I found:

• INTC opened at 23.47, down from its close of 24.15. Their earnings missed expectations by $0.005/share. My put would have increased in price by about 50% overnight.
• IBM opened at 198.27, up from its close of 194.55. Their earnings were $3.97/share, crushing the expected $3.77/share. My put would have decreased in price by 67% overnight.
• XLNX opened at 45 and rallied to 46 in the first 15 minutes of the trading day, up from its close of 43.53. Their earnings were 56c/share, handily beating estimates of 47c/share. By the time I got out of it, my put would have decreased in price by 75%.

That's a pretty big bullet my absent-mindedness helped me dodge! Just how big? Let's say I put $1000 into each of those positions:

• INTC: $1000 * 50% profit = $500 profit
• IBM: $1000 * 67% loss = $670 loss
• XLNX: $1000 * 75% loss = $750 loss
• Total Loss: $920 on a $3000 investment, or -31% overnight. Ouch.

Sometimes forgetfulness saves money.

Happy 1999

I split 1999 in the Year-a-Month project into two separate months, because of the long list. To simplify things, I also simply skipped a month so I could do the full write-up all at once. I also skipped Satan's Child by Danzig, because I couldn't find it for a reasonable price. A lot of new stuff this month.

Acid King: Busse Woods - Busse Woods is a Cook County Forest Preserve near O'Hare Airport, just outside my old stomping grounds of Chicago. The members of Acid King used to hang out there as teenagers, and so this album and its title song is a tribute to that beloved era.

Black Label Society: Sonic Brew - Black Label Society is a new band this month. Its founder, Zakk Wylde, was Ozzy Osbourne's lead guitarist for several years. The guitar work is my favorite (by a long margin) aspect of Ozzy, so not surprisingly I'm really digging this album.

Dope: Felons and Revolutionaries - Dope is a new band this month. They also fall under the heading of "stoner metal", but they have a much harder sound than Acid King. I was able to get this album for free from Freegal, which is mighty nice.

Filter: Title of Record - This album is slightly heavier than the last, which of course means that I like it a little better. Not that I had any major problem with the first one, but heavier guitar sound is always welcome. Least favorite song, not surprisingly, was the big single: Take a Picture. Way too mainstream pop for my taste.

KoRn: Issues - Listening to this album immediately after Slipknot, I could almost picture the members of KoRn sitting around trying to figure out how to sound more mentally screwed up, while the members of Slipknot were just concentrating on shredding. They both are "issues" bands (no pun intended), but KoRn needs to step back into the music instead of just the image.

Megadeth: Risk - This album sucks. Mustaine apparently thought he could make more money by switching over to a more Alt Rock sound - maybe that's the reason for the title: he was risking the band's reputation on a genre change. Happily, things get heavier again with the next album.

Slipknot: Slipknot - Slipknot is a new band this month. I already own their 2004 album Vol 3: The Subliminal Verses. This first album actually follows a 1997 EP (Mate. Feed. Kill. Repeat.) that contained the track that gave Slipknot their name. The album Slipknot was voted the best debut album in the last 25 years. I agree. This stuff kills.

ZZ Top: XXX - ZZ Top continues their transition to a blues band with this album. As a blues sound, I dig the distorted guitar and bass lines. I'm not a huge blues fan myself, but I still found myself tapping my foot while listening to this album. I doubt I would pay money for this album, but getting it via Freegal from the library is OK with me.

Overkill: Necroshine - Overkill remains my go-to band for graveyard metal. I happened to listen to this album right after Megadeth, and it was a breath of fresh air by comparison. It did an excellent job of soothing away the alternative rock rage left with me by Mustaine and company.

Staind: Dysfunction - This album wins this month's Most Disturbing Cover Award, narrowly edging out Slipknot. Maybe I'm just in more of a Staind mood, but I enjoyed this one a lot more than the last one.

Right on Target

On December 14, 2012, gun violence erupted in Newton, Connecticut. A lone gunman entered a school and killed 20 children and 6 teachers and administrators. The topic of gun control, both pro- and anti-, had already been a fairly hot one; now, it was the leading conversation topic on everyone's minds. Folks lined up predictably: conservatives generally tended to be against it, citing quotes like "guns don't kill people, people kill people," and the 4th Amendment; liberals were equally vocal from the other perspective, quoting statistics from countries with strong gun control legislation, as well as making emotional appeals. Stocks of gun makers slid, as the market anticipated changes that would be negative for their bottom lines.

One such gun maker was Smith & Wesson, perhaps the best-known American gun maker of all time. Smith & Wesson can be traded via its holding company, Smith & Wesson Holding Corp (SWHC). Just a week or so before, SWHC reported earnings higher than analysts had estimated, and raised guidance for 2013. Regardless, SWHC stock dropped from its high of $11.25 to $9.40 in two of the days leading up to the Dec 14 violence. Afterward, SWHC slid even further, closing at $7.79 three days later.

On December 19, 2012, President Obama gave a press conference discussing various topics, including the Dec 14 tragedy and the possibility of gun control in the future. The full transcript of that speech can be found on the Washington Post website. The chatter on facebook, where I do most of my crowd-watching because of its raw knee-jerk flavor, universally agreed that massive gun control measures were coming; some people opined with satisfaction, others with chagrin. I watched this flood of prognosticating carefully for the next two days. The daily traded volume of SWHC eclipsed any other volume spike that year by about 60%, including the massive two-day 37% rally it enjoyed in September, 2012, following a truly magnificent earnings report.

On December 21, 2012, I bought SWHC at $8. My reasoning was that the entire nation was overreacting in its prediction of the policy outcome. Call me cynical, call me contrarian, call me cold and heartless, I don't care. But I saw a stock that had no business being nearly 30% lower with rising profits. I also saw that many conservatives were taking the President's comments as a call to buy guns before it became too difficult to do so. SWHC continued to bounce around on Dec 21, closing just 10c above my purchase price. I said at the time that I would hold it as long as necessary to get a good return out of it. I had a soft mental stop price of about $7 to start worrying, and a pie-in-the-sky profit exit of about $16: double my money. I didn't expect $16, of course, but if it got there, I would take the money and run.

In the second week of January, I traveled to Salt Lake City, UT, for my annual ski trip. One evening after skiing, I proposed that we go to a local gun range and store for some target shooting. John and I did so, and the place was so packed that we gave up and tried the next night. We arrived a little earlier and found the store a little less crazy but still very, very busy. And folks weren't just looking, they were buying. I asked the store owner why he thought it was so busy, and he looked at me and chuckled, saying, "why do you think?" We had fun shooting, and I went home feeling very optimistic about my investment.

January 16, 2013, was a big day for SWHC: it opened at $8.40 and closed at $8.91, seeing a high for the day of $9.25. During the ensuing price action, I placed an order to sell covered calls against it: targeting a strike price of $10 with a March expiry. I wasn't filled that day, but early the next my calls sold for 55c/share. When I do covered-call trades, I like to discount the purchase price by the amount of the premium; thus my effective buying price for SWHC was now $7.45, 22c/share lower than the low on Dec 18 at the height of the gun control sell-off.

On March 5, 2013, SWHC hit its high since the December sell-off, peaking at $10.63 and eventually closing at $10.22. That evening it missed estimated earnings, and subsequently sold off into the options expiry weekend, closing at $9.21 on March 15. My covered calls expired worthless that weekend, and I started working a new covered call order the next week. In retrospect, I could have maximized my profits by selling $9 strikes in January instead of $10 strikes. But of course that would have required me to see the future, which I cannot do.

I sort of lost track of my SWHC position for almost a month, refreshing my covered call order in mid-April, and finally getting filled on April 25, selling June expiry calls with a strike price of $9 at 45c/share. This brought my effective purchase price down to a nice round $7/share.

I hoped for similar price action to the previous quarter, since that would allow me to sell even more calls at strike prices above my purchase price, but alas the next earnings report was much more positive, and I was assigned my calls over the June 21, 2013, expiry weekend. I was out of SWHC at $9/share, with an effective purchase price of $7/share. That's about 28% in 6 months. Maybe I could have squeezed a little more money out of this trade, but considering I would forget about it for months at a time, I'm pretty happy with it.

Contrarian investing is not for the faint of heart. I have doubled down on GLD calls three times now during the 9-month bear market we've been experiencing, and it seems that Bernanke has a personal vendetta against my position. But sometimes, when the world is screaming "Sell" at the top of its lungs, it is very profitable to accommodate them. This was one of those times.

Happy 1998

It's 1998 in the Year-a-Month Project.

Iron Maiden: Virtual XI - Blaze Bayley returns as the lead singer on this album, and he's growing on me. I find him as easy to listen to as Bruce Dickinson, and his influence hasn't seemed to hurt the Iron Maiden style very much. But in a couple of years (2000) Bruce will be back, and that's just fine with me, too.

Anthrax: Volume 8: The Threat Is Real - The critics didn't care for this album (2.5/5), but I thought it was a pretty good offering by Anthrax. Of course, any album without Joey Belladonna on vocals automatically gets an extra star in my book. The 46-second track Cupajoe ("I really need a cup of coffee/go get me a cupajoe!") will probably be cycling in my head every morning for the foreseeable future.

KoRn: Follow The Leader - Every month, KoRn gets a little stranger. This album starts with 12 tracks of silence, each about 5 seconds long, and the last track has the 1990s obligatory long silent stretch followed by some stoner spoken-word. In between, the circus-like insanity-metal is nearly as pronounced as Mr Bungle, and is broken up by some truly bizarre metal-rap featuring Ice Cube.

Stabbing Westward: Darkest Days - This felt like a continuation of Wither Blister Burn and Peel, but without the passion. I hope it helped to finance their heroin habit, because it wasn't good for much else. Some consider this to be Stabbing Westward's best album; all I can say is, "Meh."

Happy 1997

It's a short list of albums this month on the Year a Month project.

Judas Priest: Jugulator - When I first started this project 3 years ago, I didn't think I would like Judas Priest, and I hated Rob Halford's vocals. Over the years, he has grown on me like a screechy fungus; and today I'm listening to the first Judas Priest album without him. I don't dislike Ripper Owens, and the rest of the band has the same groove metal flavor I love. But Priest just isn't the same without Halford.

Megadeth: Cryptic Writings - This is a post-Youthanasia album, and Youthanasia seems to be some kind of sell-out turning point for Megadeth. There are a few tracks that sound like the old angry  band, like Vortex, but there are others that seem to be trying to capture a mainstream audience by way of being washed out and sissified. Where Metallica goes, Dave Mustaine follows, I guess.

Overkill: From the Underground and Below - I was struck by how much the drums and guitars on this album sounded like Metallica's style, at least in terms of rhythm. The vocals are totally different, of course, since Blitz Ellsworth sounds like he's gargling a glass of water and is starting to choke. I'm not a big fan of Overkill's vocals; but the guitars make up for it.

Happy 1996

It's 1996 in the Year-a-Month project, and at first I thought I would be splitting this year up over two months, but a combination of Freegal and laughably expensive albums whittled the order down to a reasonable level. I skipped albums by Danzig and Staind for price reasons, and scored Dio and ZZ Top through Freegal. Although in fairness, I doubt I would have bothered with ZZ Top if it weren't free.

Pantera: The Great Southern Trendkill - the opening scream on the opening track of The Great Southern Trendkill lets you know you're listening to Pantera: the band that invented the heavy metal scream vocals. They're really turning into the band that they were destined to become. It pains me that there is only one more album coming.

Dio: Angry Machines - picked this album up off of Freegal a month or two ago over the course of a couple of weeks. I love how Dio manages to change so much between albums, but still maintain the basic 70s-era sound that he's famous for. I forgot, as I listened, that this was a 1996 album (until the heavy synth on Stay Out of My Mind, of course).

Korn: Life Is Peachy - this one is shipping... but it's been a long time, so I'm not going to delay this post any longer for it. It's Korn. I'm sure it's awesome. Maybe I'll update the post with a review after it shows up.

Tool: Ænima - Say what you like about Tool, but their arrangements and production are second to none. Every song paints a unique picture, and yet the whole album hangs together in tone and feel.

ZZ Top: Rhythmeen - also scored this album from Freegal. It took 3 weeks to download it all, since Freegal only allows 5 songs a week. But since I rarely can find things I want in Freegal's inventory, it's not like I have a big to-download queue.

Overkill: The Killing Kind - This was a controversial album for Overkill, with two new guitarists and the addition of backing vocals. The press loved it, but fans predictably polarized into two camps: those that loved it, and those that hated it. I guess I'm not an Overkill fan, because I didn't even notice a change from the 1994 album WFO.

Motörhead: Overnight Sensation - this the only Motörhead album I know of that shows the band members on the front instead of the usual "war pig". That's Lemmy in the middle. I think the war pig is better looking. But fear not... the cover is the only thing different about this album.